Quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods can be applied to help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighbourhood.
Neither limited statehood nor contested orders will go away. They create vulnerabilities and pose risks, but they do not in themselves amount to threats to the EU. Only if and when areas of limited statehood and contested orders deteriorate into governance breakdowns and violent conflict, do the risks turn into threats to the security and stability of the EU, its member states, and citizens.
